Indonesia has announced it will participate. 117, B01302. 265, 61–81. Sci. 117, B01312. A 1,000-year sediment record of tsunami recurrence in northern Sumatra. The synthesized slip distribution is converted via Box–Cox transformation to achieve slip distribution with realistic positive skewness (Goda et al., 2014). 97, S86–S102. The seismotectonic study by Newcomb and McCan (1987) concluded that the rupture of the 1833 earthquake extended ~300 km from near Enggano Island in South to Batu Islands in North with the earthquake size of Mw 8.7–8.8. (2015). Meanwhile, following the failure of the 22 previously deployed buoys, BMKG still lacks a functional network of ocean buoys and deep-sea pressure sensors called DARTs (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis). Indonesian islands are very close to earthquake sources like the Sunda Megathrust, the 5,500-kilometer-long subduction zone off Sumatra and Java that was the source of the cataclysmic 2004 earthquake and tsunami. Unlike Aceh Province on Sumatra, where nearly 170,000 perished, only 7 people on Simeulue — out of 70,000 residents — drowned during the catastrophe, Dewi says, because locals recalled the stories of their ancestors who faced a tsunami in 1907. 75, 1135–1154. (B) Box–Cox analysis. In recent years, the Indonesian government, along with other groups like the Earth Observatory of Singapore and the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, has been introducing technologies to improve hazard forecasting, warning and mitigation. A megathrust earthquake occurs in subduction zones at convergent boundaries. Rupture scenarios of the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes were developed based on the seismotectonic features, geodetic, and paleogeodetic measurements (see Figure 2). Indonesia experiences roughly 4,000 earthquakes a year, 70 to 100 of which are magnitude 5.5 or higher, along with one or two highly destructive quakes, some reaching or exceeding magnitude 8. Using the stochastic tsunami simulation results for the Mw 9.0 scenario, sensitivity analysis of the tsunami simulated wave profiles is carried out and presented in this section. Math. “We’ve done the training,” Dewi says. *Correspondence: Ario Muhammad, ario.muhammad@bristol.ac.uk, Front. Available at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/, Yue, H., Lay, T., Rivera, L., Bai, Y., Yamazaki, Y., Cheung, K. F., et al. Earthquake supercycles on the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust in the seventeenth century and earlier Belle Philibosian, Kerry Sieh, Jean Philippe Avouac , Danny H. Natawidjaja, Hong Wei Chiang, Chung Che Wu, Chuan Chou Shen, Mudrik R. Daryono, Hugo … However, except for the investigations by McCloskey et al. “Much of the loss stemming from the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided,” Sieh wrote in a 2007 Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami paper. (2004). “Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia,” in Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction, eds P. R. Cummins and I. Meilano (London: Geological Society). This assumption is based on the paleogeodetic study that finds the potential of giant earthquakes is high in the Mentawai segment as the source earthquake region for the 1797 and 1833 events (Chlieh et al., 2008; Sieh et al., 2008). In stochastic source modeling, slip values that are consistent with considered spatial slip distribution features are generated. In 2017, Indonesians reported 787 floods, 716 tornadoes, 614 landslides, and 96 forest and ground fires (burning peat lands and rainforests to make room for large palm oil plantations and smaller farms is a popular practice, especially in Sumatra). (D) Maximum tsunami wave height profile along the coastal line by incorporating uncertainty. Extensive paleogeodetic, geodetic, and numerical modeling studies suggest that the potential of megathrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai segment of the Sunda subduction zone is high (Natawidjaja et al., 2006; McCloskey et al., 2008; Collings et al., 2012, 2013). Stress Changes on the Sunda Megathrust Preceding the 8.4 2007 Earthquake Kelly Grijalva, Roland Bürgmann, and Edwin (Trey) Apel Introduction The 8.4 September 12, 2007 Sumatra earthquake's occurrence, close in time and space to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2005 Nias megathrust events, suggests that it could be a triggered earthquake. (2010) is shown in Figure 7A. The circular average of the normalized wavenumber spectra is calculated, and the fractal dimension Df is defined based on the least squares fitting. (2016) using numerous inversion models (226 models) from the SRCMOD database (Mai and Thingbaijam, 2014) and can be used for tsunami hazard analysis. Bull. Am. Of the 18 tsunami warnings that BMKG has issued since the system was set up in 2008, six have been false alarms, a success rate that could lead to skepticism about the reliability of future tsunami warnings. Overall, 3.4 million people were displaced that year by these natural disasters. Tsunami generation by horizontal displacement of ocean bottom. Nature 434, 291. doi:10.1038/434291a, Meltzner, A. J., Sieh, K., Abrams, M., Agnew, D. C., Hudnut, K. W., Avouac, J. P., et al. The tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang, a coastal city in western Sumatra where tsunamis are a major threat. J. Geophys. J. Geophys. The Sunda megathrust can be divided into the Andaman Megathrust, Sumatra(n) Megathrustand Java(n) … Hence, it is highly desirable to generate multiple earthquake source models by taking into account all relevant source parameters that are consistent with the regional source characteristics of the future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai-Sunda zone. By contrast, incorporating the uncertainty of the scaling relationships results in variability of dimensions and slip statistics. Tsunami mitigation efforts with pTA in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia. The range of the maximum tsunami wave height of the models considering the uncertainty is between 2.5 and 20 m, while the corresponding range for the models excluding the uncertainty is between 5 and 17.5 m. However, as observed from the tsunami wave profiles at the three recording stations, i.e., Tabing, Purus, and Teluk Bayur stations, the median of maximum tsunami wave profiles produced from these two calculation cases are similar (see black and green lines in Figure 10A). Seismol. Seismol. Available at: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/eq_041226/neic_slav_ff.html, Ji, C. (2005b). The Box–Cox parameter (λ) is then obtained based on the value that achieves the maximum linear correlation coefficient (see Figure 3B). The city most vulnerable to a potential quake in the Mentawai Gap and a resultant tsunami is Padang, the largest city on the western coast of Sumatra with a population of more than 800,000. These data show that the maximum tsunami wave height in Padang can reach 20 m in urban areas (Tabing–Purus) where many important public facilities exist (e.g., school, hospital, and gas station). Figure 12. (2008). Summary of earthquake source parameters for the 19 finite-fault models of the Sumatra subduction earthquakes. In this study, bathymetry data with a 50-m resolution are adopted to run the tsunami simulation in the shallow water and land regions. Figure 3. “The children I saw afterward weren’t traumatized; they knew what to do and they seemed happy, even though they saw their houses disappear,” Dewi recalls. results are also demonstrated. Bull. Res. “GPS provides what is happening before an earthquake occurs — how the surface is deforming, and how the slip is occurring [on a fault] — and what happens after a quake.”. These buoys and sensors can be linked with GPS systems to better measure seafloor displacement and detect tsunamis, but the InaTEWS system is not integrated at all with GPS networks configured for hazard warnings or for measurements of plate movement. Earth Planet Space 66, 105. doi:10.1186/1880-5981-66-105, Goda, K., Yasuda, T., Mori, N., and Mai, P. M. (2015). The system could, in theory, be modified to work as part of a national earthquake and tsunami warning network, Banerjee suggests. On my mind were the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami that struck just west of Sumatra’s Aceh Province, claiming the lives of more than 170,000 Indonesians and roughly 270,000 people around the region. doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0536-y, Shao, G., and Ji, C. (2005). Res. Emmett, who holds a doctorate in journalism and public communication, is an environmental and science journalist specializing in coverage of social and scientific issues in Asia and Africa. Although the single scenario approach is straightforward to communicate with the hazard results with emergency officers and relevant stakeholders, the multiple-scenario approach can produce a greater range of tsunami scenarios and therefore, more informed decisions regarding evacuation and mitigation actions can be made. These points are selected because they were also considered by Muhari et al. Soc. Therefore, the potential for large tsunamigenic events in the Mentawai segment remains high (Konca et al., 2008). In addition, the slip deficit is sufficient to generate a Mw 8.8–9.0 earthquake (Zachariasen et al., 1999; Sieh et al., 2008). If you feel a strong earthquake lasting 30 seconds or more and you can’t stand properly, you must evacuate — but don’t take your vehicles; just walk. The GEBCO2014 dataset is adopted for bathymetry data with the resolution of 30 arc-sec (~900 m). doi:10.1029/2005JB004025, Newcomb, K. R., and McCan, W. R. (1987). (2016) will be adopted only if the calculated earthquake source parameters from the 19 finite-fault models of the Sunda subduction earthquakes are consistent with these global relationships. In an incident that attracted international media attention, a March 2016 magnitude-7.8 earthquake that struck in the ocean roughly 800 kilometers southwest of Padang, Sumatra, resulted in tsunami warnings for parts of Indonesia, but no tsunami ever arrived. The largest earthquakes are generated when the megathrust itself ruptures. In addition, the correlation lengths and Hurst number are used to model the spatial heterogeneity of the slip values. A continental plate came up 20 feet and produced a huge tsunami that affected many surrounding countries in 2004. For instance, at the Tabing station (P1), the percentiles range from −2 to 2 m for the Mw 8.5 scenario and the range increases to −5 to 10 m for the Mw 9.0 scenario. (2010) are shown with the red circle (see also Table 1). (2006). The fault rupture is assumed to occur instantaneously, while the duration of the simulation is set to 2 h and the time step for the simulation is 0.5 s, which satisfies the C.F.L. The Sunda Megathrust remains the most hazardous fault in the Indonesian archipelago. (2007). With the expected maximum height of the secondary waves as much as 7.5 m within the period of 90 min after the earthquake, people living within the coastal region of Padang must evacuate earlier and stay out of the inundated areas otherwise the secondary waves may cause additional human loses. For each combination of magnitude scenario and uncertainty case, 100 stochastic source models are generated and used in Monte Carlo tsunami simulation. The simulated tsunami wave profiles from the Mw 9.0 scenario were compared with the results from Muhari et al. After lying dormant for about a thousand years, sudden slippage of a 1600-km long section of the Sunda megathrust fault caused uplift of the seafloor between Aceh and Myanmar, resulting in a great earthquake and the horrific Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. Several laterally extensive candidate tsunami deposits are preserved along coastlines facing the eastern Java Trench, indicating it has experienced mega-thrust earthquakes in the past. BNPB’s companion agency, BMKG, which is in charge of all-island earthquake and tsunami warnings, relies on a separate warning system, known as InaTEWS (Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System), which communicates some data to InAWARE but operates as a separate warning system for seismic hazards only. Any copying, redistribution or retransmission of any of the contents of this service without the expressed written permission of the American Geosciences Institute is expressly prohibited. “We couldn’t use the data except to say something severe had happened,” Behrens says. This makes it difficult for scientists to interpret two separate data streams coming from the buoys: one measuring seismicity (detected by ocean-bottom pressure sensors attached to the buoys) and another measuring anomalous wave heights at the water’s surface. For validation purposes, the simulated tsunami wave profiles for the Mw 9.0 scenario are used to compare with the results by Muhari et al. Figure 11. A summary of the stochastic tsunami simulation used in this study is then presented, and the stochastic source models for the Mentawai-Sunda megathrust are further developed. To achieve the target mean slip Da and to avoid very large slip values exceeding the target maximum slip Dm, the transformed slip distribution is further adjusted. Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements. doi:10.1002/2014JB011200, Satake, K., Nishimura, Y., Putra, P. S., Gusman, A. R., Sunendar, H., Fujii, Y., et al. Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress. Large variations in tsunami wave heights are observed at those three points with the maximum tsunami height of 15 m. From the medians of the tsunami waveforms at three recording points, consistent tsunami waveforms compared to the Muhari et al. Elastic dislocation modeling of those uplift data yielded the slip prediction of 9–18 m between 2°S and 5°S. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. With the total population of 850,000 people, the social and economic impacts due to the future tsunamigenic earthquakes are high. Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-Frog Scheme. The strike and dip angles of these models are typically in the range of 296° to 326° and 7° to 19°, respectively. The earthquake source parameters from the finite-fault models of the past Sunda subduction earthquakes are first calculated and then compared with the global scaling relationships developed by Goda et al. Tsunami-induced coastal change: scenario studies for Painan, West Sumatra, Indonesia. doi:10.1029/JB092iB01p00421, Newman, A. V., Hayes, G., Wei, Y., and Convers, J. Indonesians also reported 19 regional droughts, two volcanic eruptions — at Mount Sinabung on Sumatra and Mount Agung on Bali — and 11 tsunamis. The North-West extension of 160 km beyond the rupture of the 1833 event was likely to stop at 0.5°S. (A) Mw 8.5 scenario without considering uncertainty. J. Geophys. The array measures “movements of all the islands linked to the [Sunda Megathrust]” and other major faults, like the Sumatran Fault, Banerjee says. Therefore, the asperity zone of the future megathrust earthquake for tsunami hazard assessment in Padang is assumed to follow the asperity areas of the 1797 event (see Figure 6A). (2016). While the temblor set off alarms in several different international tsunami warning systems, including Indonesia’s own, both local disaster specialists in Sumatra and national specialists in Jakarta were confronted with conflicting reports. Second, using the effective dimension, the Box–Cox analysis is conducted to characterize the probability distribution of slip values within the fault plane by identifying the best power parameter (λ) to transform a non-normal random variable (X) to a normal random variable (Y) as presented in Eq. In addition, the spectral analysis is conducted to define the correlation lengths along dip and strike and the Hurst number. Tsunamis were observed along the western coast of Sumatra extending from Pariaman to Bengkulu due to this event. The tsunami simulation results for the other scenarios are then discussed to evaluate the tsunami hazard potential in Padang areas. Up to 15 million random slip models were generated using existing scaling relationships that were based on only seven subduction earthquake events in Sumatra and eventually 1,000 tsunami simulations from those slip models were further performed to assess the tsunami hazard in Mentawai Islands. The crudest grid is 1,350 m, while the finest grid is 50 m. To connect grid systems with different resolutions, two grids having different grid resolutions by a factor of 3 are considered. The stochastic tsunami simulation results from the Mw 9.0 scenario are used to investigate the sensitivity of the tsunami simulated wave profile and are compared with the reference results based on the Muhari et al. When the buoys were first deployed, “they didn’t work very well,” says Jörn Behrens, a professor of mathematics at the University of Hamburg in Germany who was involved with the German-Indonesian tsunami warning system from 2006 to 2010. The stochastic tsunami simulation is conducted by generating multiple earthquake source models for a given earthquake scenario, which are used as input to run Monte Carlo tsunami simulation. The gap hasn’t seen a significant quake in more than 200 years. Although the devastating tsunami event might not occur in the next few centuries in the Sumatra-Andaman segment, the ruptures of the megathrust fault have increased the failure probability of the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust areas (see Figure 1) which is located in South of the fault rupture areas of the 2004 and 2005 events (Nalbant et al., 2005; Chlieh et al., 2008; Sieh et al., 2008; Collings et al., 2012, 2013). “We are trying to develop and integrate local wisdom with technology, so that communities can build the capacity to cope with the disaster themselves,” he says. Most famous among them, perhaps, are Tambora in West Nusa Tenggara and Krakatoa, situated between Sumatra and Java, which erupted catastrophically in 1815 and 1883, respectively. The verified scaling relationships were further used to build the earthquake source models for tsunami simulation. (2010) because they used Mw 8.92 to define their earthquake source scenario. “We call this the ‘working together spirit.’ This means the disaster belongs to us. Seismicity along the trench is dominantly related to subduction tectonics and large earthquakes are common: there have been 13 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded since 1900. The combination of W, L, and Da are calculated iteratively until the seismic moment criterion is satisfied (note: a tolerance of ±0.05 magnitude units is permitted). (2016) to validate the applicability of the global models to the Sunda subduction zone. Nugroho acknowledges the need for the buoys, but says the country doesn’t “have funding for maintenance or to replace them.”. 10, Q09006. doi:10.1029/2007JB004981, Collings, R., Lange, D., Rietbrock, A., Tilmann, F., Natawidjaja, D., Suwargadi, B., et al. The second step is to determine the effective width and length by calculating the auto-correlation dimensions as defined by Mai and Beroza (2000). Seismic activity is another story. Coastal Eng. When the islanders saw the ocean receding, just before the giant tsunami waves came crashing in, they knew to run for higher ground. doi:10.1002/2014JB011082, Zachariasen, J., Sieh, K., Taylor, F. W., Edwards, R. L., and Hantoro, W. S. (1999). Front. A chain of active volcanoes — including Sinabung and Krakatoa among others — traces this plate boundary. Res. Source scaling properties from finite-fault-rupture models. Essentially, the stochastic tsunami simulation involves two main calculations, i.e., generation of stochastic source models and Monte Carlo tsunami simulation (Figure 5). It caused a devastating tsunami which led to several thousand fatalities. J. Geophys. |, Tsunami Potential of the Mentawawi-Sunda Megathrust Zone, Earthquake Source Parameters for Sumatra Earthquakes, United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2015, http://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/, http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/eq_041226/neic_slav_ff.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2005_sumatra/sumatra.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2007/09/sumatra_seismic.html, http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2005/03/smooth/nias.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2008_n_sumatra/simeulue.html, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2007_c_sumatra/c-sumatra.html, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/, Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). Many of Indonesia’s most remote villages also lack reliable communications and road infrastructure, so that residents may not hear sirens or radio warnings. 35. The stochastic tsunami simulation can be conducted by generating multiple source models for a given earthquake scenario and by performing tsunami forward modeling iteratively. “Now, volcanic eruptions are among the most predictable of geological disruptions,” Devy says. Second, an asperity zone is set up within the fault plane of the source zone along with the required slip concentration range. Copyright: © 2016 Muhammad, Goda and Alexander. Available at: http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2007_c_sumatra/c-sumatra.html, Tanioka, Y., and Satake, K. (1996). Solid Earth. The nested grid systems of bathymetry and DEM having four resolutions are developed to assess the tsunami hazard in Padang due to the future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Mentawai segment. (2013). Solid Earth. The Hurst number is then calculated after converting from the fractal dimension (i.e., H = 3 − Df). Nature 455, 1232–1234. Special Publications, 441. 170, 1567–1582. All of these buoys reportedly failed to work properly during the March 2016 incident. Acad. Geodetic and paleogeodetic studies indicate that the slip deficit accumulated in the Mentawai segment has already exceeded the slip occurred during the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes (Collings et al., 2013). Off western Sumatra, for example, fishermen and pirates have reportedly stripped the tsunami buoys, which cost more than $300,000 apiece, of sensitive electronic parts to sell. The south-eastern limit of the rupture was at about 3.2°S since the south-eastern limit of the uplift due to the 1797 event was on South Pagai Island. Next, the synthesized fault plane position is randomly located within the source region. The estimated median of the simulated tsunami wave profiles produced from stochastic tsunami simulation is acceptable in comparison to the results from Muhari et al. Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra. This area along the trench is of particular interest to geophysicists because the patch of the Sunda megathrust fault that lies underneath it has generated large earthquakes historically, with the last one taking place in 1833. Goto, C., Ogawa, Y., Shuto, N., and Imamura, F. (1997). For instance, the maximum height from the 90th percentile of the second and third waves for the Mw 9.0 scenario without considering the uncertainty is ~5 m, while it is ~7.5 m for the case considering the uncertainty of the scaling relationships. Three magnitudes, i.e., Mw 8.5, Mw 8.75, and Mw 9.0, are selected to develop stochastic source models. A paleogeodetic study by Natawidjaja et al. Banerjee, P., Nagarajan, B., Burgmann, R., and Pollitz, F. (2007). “The challenge is the low capacity of local governments; they don’t put disaster risk awareness into their agenda,” Nugroho says. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.09.034, McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S. S., and Steacy, S. (2005). Before carrying out spectral analysis, a cell-based grid of the finite-fault models is converted to a grid-based slip distribution and then the slip is interpolated using a selected grid spacing which is not smaller than one-fifth of the original grid resolution (left panel of Figure 3C). (B) Mw 8.5 scenario considering uncertainty. doi:10.1073/pnas.0604069103, PubMed Abstract | CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar, Briggs, R. W., Sieh, K., Meltzner, A. J., Natawidjaja, D., Galetzka, J., Suwargadi, B., et al. Res. New scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters for stochastic tsunami simulation. The results shown in Figure 4 indicate that the estimated source parameters are in agreement with the scaling relationships; for most cases, the estimated parameters fall within the 16th to 84th percentile confidence interval of the prediction equations. On the other hand, the records of coral and microatoll uplift due to the 1797 earthquake showed that the 1797 event preceded the 1833 giant earthquake by 37 years. Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 inferred from coral microatolls. 105, 28295–28326. With all of this tectonic activity, the country also has 78 volcanoes that have erupted in recorded history. 115, B12316. To develop such bathymetry datasets, GEBCO2014, GDEM2, and SRTM Water Body Data (SWBD), are merged by considering the resolution of 1 arc-sec (same as GDEM2). Many seismologists expect that the region’s next great earthquake and tsunami will likely happen in the Mentawai Gap, a portion of the megathrust about 90 kilometers west of central Sumatra. (B) Mw 8.5 scenario considering uncertainty. Am. doi:10.1029/96GL00736, United States Geological Survey (USGS). “Even if the warning system worked perfectly and instantaneously, even if SMS [text messaging] works one second after the ground shakes, for a nearshore earthquake [and tsunami] event, you’d have trouble a couple of kilometers away getting out of the inundation zone,” Chiesa says. And on some islands, local officials often ignore warnings from disaster agencies, thinking the government is too often “crying wolf.”. Soc. Historical recent seismic activities in the Sumatra areas (Sim: Simeulue, Ni: Nias, Ba: Batu Islands, Sib: Sibereut, Sip: Sipora, Pag: Pagai Islands, and Eng: Enggano). Behrens believes the current dysfunctional buoys need to be replaced with a better-designed tsunami warning system. (2016) are also included. Historic great earthquakes along the Sumatra segment of the subduction zone ( Fig. Two sets of 100 stochastic source models are generated for the Mw 9.0 earthquake scenario to carry out the Monte Carlo tsunami simulation. UNESCO, No. The figures show that neglecting the uncertainty of the scaling relationships leads to identical dimensions (L and W) of the generated earthquake source models and the same slip statistics values for different realizations. It can be seen that the 10th and 90th percentile curves vary significantly from the Mw 8.5 scenario to the Mw 9.0 scenario. Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra. Tsunami 4, 341–368. Lett. As presented at P1 and P3, the secondary wave heights for the scenarios of Mw 8.5 and Mw 8.75 are insignificant with the heights of below 1 m. However, the heights increase significantly when the Mw 9.0 scenario are considered. 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